|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
How Energy Efficiency Can Turn 1300 Power Plants into 170
Thursday, May 31, 2001
By Bill Prindle
The Bush administration's energy plan makes a strong argument for investment in new energy supply infrastructure. The most commonly-used factoid in this argument in the Department of Energy's projected need for 1300 new power plants by the year 2020 (at an average size of 300 Megawatts). Vice President Cheney has repeated this number to the point that it begins to sound like a regulatory requirement rather than a forecast from a computer model.
Let's examine the facts behind the 1300-power-plant argument. DOE's forecast is based on the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook, which uses a macroeconomic model called the National Energy Modeling System. But NEMS, like all models, can miss the mark. For example, in 1999 NEMS predicted no increases in natural gas prices. The 1300-power plant forecast would drop dramatically if it used these inputs:
*230 of the 1300 power plants are for replacing current units. So the net new demand for power is actually 1070 plants.
* 300 power plants' worth of capacity, already in the pipeline, will come on line by the end of 2002. That leaves the need at 770.
*Appliance efficiency standards for clothes washers, water heaters, and air conditioners, passed by the Clinton administration in January, and agreed to by the Bush administration, will reduce demand by 127 power plants in 2020. That cuts the need to 643.
*If the Bush administration supported the air conditioner standard at the SEER 13 level approved by Clinton, instead of the reduced SEER 12 level they announced in April, another 43 plants would be saved, reducing the need to 600.
* Pursuing strong standards for commercial air conditioning would save another 50 plants, cutting the need to 550.
*Programs to reduce energy use in new buildings, such as building energy codes, tax credits, and public benefit programs, would avoid 170 power plants. That means reducing new homes' demand by one 1 kW per home, and new commercial building demand by 1 watt per square foot. Modern building codes alone can easily achieve those kinds of savings; doing so takes the need down to 380 power plants.
*Programs to improve existing buildings, by targeting residential air conditioners, commercial lighting, and commercial cooling, can trim demand projections by another 210 power plants. That leaves the tally at 170.
Since our electricity industry is producing 300 plants over the next two years, it is reasonable to assume that another 170 can be brought on line over the following eighteen. Many of those could be renewable-energy plants, producing little or no pollution.
Realizing the energy efficiency gains, especially the 380 power plants from new and existing buildings, will take a concerted effort, involving increased R&D funding, aggressive support for building codes, new federal tax credits, and public benefits funding from electricity sales to support state-based efficiency programs.
---------
Note from the editor: The Alliance to Save Energy's Bill Prindle researched and wrote the above fact sheet. REPP-CREST bolded the text for emphasis.
Bibliography:
Reprinted with permission
2001 The Alliance to Save Energy Fact Sheet "How Energy Efficiency Can Turn 1300 Power Plants into 170," Bill Prindle, Director, Buildings and Utilties Programs
http://www.ase.org/media/factsheets/facts1300.htm
Photo credit: NREL ee Golden CO bldg
PIX number 01319
Title: SERF research facility in Golden, Colorado uses natural lighting
Caption: To run its heating and cooling systems, SERF employs high efficiency motors that use 2% to 3% less electricity than standard motors to produce the same mechanical output. Although these motors cost more to purchase, they will pay for themselves in less than 3 years because of the energy they save. Fans used for ventilation and the motors that drive the fan motors are usually driven at maximum power in conventional cooling and heating systems. Dampers control the flow of air to meet demand. Instead of dampers, SERF's ventilation system uses variable-frequency fans driven at the speed and power needed to meet demand at any given time. The drives operate from 30% to 100% of maximum power, significantly reducing energy consumption.
Credit: Gretz, Warren
Publications: National Renewable Energy Laboratory institutional plan FY 1994 - FY 1999 Step into the future of energy-efficient building design and renewable energy research (NREL/MK-130-5773, October 1993)
|
|
|
