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Hello All --
Difficult to make any firm conclusion based on this graph and
analysis, but without higher production by OPEC and elsewhere, perhaps easy
petroleum availability has reached its zenith. Would not higher cost
follow addition pressure on capacity? EIA provides the discussion below.
From: http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/opec.html
Best, Dick
"January 9,
2000 -- EIA -- Fact Sheet
Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries OPEC
OPEC members Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela produce about
40% of the world's oil and hold more than 77% of the world's proven oil
reserves. OPEC also contains most of the world's excess oil production
capacity."
"Even with these production cuts, EIA
has concluded that surplus oil production capacity worldwide is currently at its
lowest level during a non-disruption period over the past three decades. Surplus
production capacity in the OPEC countries will be less than 2.7 million bbl/d
(3.2 million bbl/d worldwide) in first quarter 2001. Only Saudi Arabia and to a
lesser extent the United Arab Emirates have significant capacity to further
expand production."
.
"EIA projects that unless there is a world
economic slowdown to dampen world oil demand, oil consumption will grow more
than twice as fast as non-OPEC production in 2001 and 2002. If this is the case,
the expected OPEC production cuts in early 2001 would need to be reversed next
year in order to meet demand."
"OPEC currently has the capacity to meet the
additional call for its oil, and expansion is planned in several countries. New
production gathering centers in Kuwaiti should increase production capacity by
200,000 bbl/d in 2001, and its export capability is being boosted as well.
Venezuela has undertaken a crash program to restore some of its lost production
capacity, which fell by 600,000 bbl/d in recent
years."
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