Re: Research Topics

["Kevin Chisholm" <kchisholm@ca.inter.net>]

Dear Murat
----- Original Message -----
From: "Murat DOGRU" <murat.dogru@ncl.ac.uk>
To: <bioenergy@crest.org>
Sent: Thursday, April 18, 2002 10:33 AM
Subject: Re: Research Topics


>
> Dear Harry, Kevin et al.,
>
> I want to make a brief comment on the subject.
>
> Ok. Lets say World will never run out of Petroleum and / or other
> fossil fuels which I do not believe personally. Because there is no
> such evidence.

If we make a "straight line projection", knowing the rates of consumption
and the rates of finding "new oil", then it is a simplistic task to project
that we will run out of oil by year 2035. However, this simplistic
projection ignores the reality that as prices of oil increase, people switch
over to less costly oil substitutes.

The Club of Rome made similar projections in the 1970's. You should review
their work from that era, and make a list of everything they predicted we
will have run out of by now, to see how wrong they were.


>
> By using fossil fuels; we are removing the carbon from the ground
> and by burning it,  are we not keep adding carbon to the
> atmosphere which causes global warming !!
> Who will compensate this.

Thats an entirely different issue.
>
> On the other hand, if we utilize negative value BIOMASS instead of
> fossil fuels, we will only circulate the existing Carbon in the
> environment.  Lets just not consider the Economic issues, we
> should also consider Environmental impacts as well.

Certainly. But thats different from the issue at hand.... the wrongness of
stating that "the world will run out of oil in 2035."
>
> If existing Biomass is utilized, we will produce 8 times more energy
> than it is consumed at the moment !! (Source NREL)..

What you are basically saying is that there is lots of biomass available for
the time when oil prices rise to the point where it will economically
advantageous to use it.
>
> I am not opening a debate on Fossil fuels against Biomass. Just a
> quick remind for Economy vs Environment.

Again, the issue is not a question of "fossil versus biomass", it is a
question of the wrongness of the statement that the World will run out of
Petroleum. It will NEVER run out of petroleum.

Kindest regards,

Kevin Chisholm
>



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