Re: Research Topics

[Thor Skov <thorskov@yahoo.com>]

Kevin,

Define what you mean by "run out."  Clearly, there is
a finite supply of fossil fuels, and a relatively
infinite demand for energy if we project human needs
into the indefinite future.  But you are right if you
mean to say that we won't use fossil fuels to the last
drop because we will shift away from fossil fuel use
to other sources (renewables) as fossils become more
scarce and their prices rise.  

Most of the political debates today around fossil
fuels (CAFE standards, reducing carbon emissions,
drilling in ANWR, use of MBTE, coal plant emissions,
etc.) concern actions that will raise the cost of
fossil fuels and thus hasten that transition.  And the
major energy industries, of course, want to delay that
shift as long as possible, and then conduct to their
maximum advantage.

I am sick of the energy industry insisting that
renewables (solar, wind, etc.) are too expensive--not
cost competitive--since that depends entirely on the
degree to which the social costs of energy use are
reflected in the price (which is very little at
present) and the amount of investment and research
dollars we put into developing these technologies
(which is also relatively tiny still).

regards,

thor

--- Kevin Chisholm <kchisholm@ca.inter.net> wrote:
> Dear Andries
> 
> With all due respect, you are making the same
> mistake as Harry, by ASSUMING
> that fossil fuel will run out. We will NEVER run out
> of fossil fuel.
> 
> If you, or anyone, disagrees, could you please
> provide a credible scenario
> showing the conditions where we will run out of
> fossil fuels, in general, or
> petroleum in particular.
> 
> Kindest regards,
> 
> Kevin Chisholm
> 
> PS: Have you read the Club of Rome stuff from the
> early '70's, to see how
> far wrong they went with their predictions?
> 
> KC
> 
> > How does this translate to biomass research?
> > I believe the discussion on desired
> biomass-for-energy research should not
> > be so much concentrated on WHEN fossil fuels run
> out (they will eventually
> > anyway), or on how FAST or to what EXTENT
> greenhouse effects are
> influenced
> > by man (that's not our main area of expertise),
> but rather under what
> > conditions certain biomass-for-energy options will
> prevail. Perhaps
> foremost
> > as a function of price level of the competing
> (fossil) energy resource.
> > This way the knowledge derived is decoupled from
> the time line debate and
> > can remains valid irregardless of when the
> competitive conditions appear
> (10
> > or 20 years sooner or later doesn't matter much).
> >
> 
> 
> 
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