Re: Research Topics

["Kevin Chisholm" <kchisholm@ca.inter.net>]

Dear KD

The Hubbel Peak does not at all address the issue of actually running out of
oil. All it does is predict the likelihood of finding new supplies.

When you hit the Hubbel Peak, and the perception is of scarceness, then
prices will rise, and the consumption will fall. So, the net effect will be
that while we have less oil available it will always be available, because
the price will rise, and ensure that it only gets used for the applications
where it is really required.

For example, I can easily afford to pay $US300 per gallon for the oil
required to lubricate my grandfather clock, or my sewing machine.
>
> See "Forecasting future production from past discovery" by Jean
> Laherrere at http://www.hubbertpeak.com/laherrere/opec2001.pdf .  All
> the stuff out of EIA comes from fitting projected supply curves to
> projected demand curves.  They "find" the reserves to provide that
> supply.  EIA could have given Arthur Anderson lessons in book cooking.
>
Imagine if Arthur Andersen and Co had gotten a suitable contract and applied
their very creative talents to determining the true total cost of fossil
fuels and biomass fuels!! This would probably have done more for the Biomass
Industry than would $100 million in technical research funding.

Kindest regards,

kevin Chisholm


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