RE: Research Topics

["Weststeijn, Andries" <Andries.Weststeijn@essent.nl>]

Dear Kevin,

You write:
>With all due respect, you are making the same mistake as Harry, by ASSUMING
that fossil fuel will run out. We will NEVER run out of fossil fuel.
>If you, or anyone, disagrees, could you please provide a credible scenario
showing the conditions where we will run out of fossil fuels, in general, or
petroleum in particular.

I indeed believe that we will run out of it eventually for PRACTICAL
purposes. I.e. the proportion that's still affordable.
I can certainly follow the reasoning that increasing price levels will drive
down the rate of usage, but there is a lower practical limit to that usage
as well. Especially like in moderate and colder area's where winter heating
is an issue.
You can afford $300 per gallon for sewing machine oil, but not for home
heating oil. 

In my view, if it wasn't for the greenhouse effect, I don't believe we would
have this discussion today, but many decades later. Since in principle, the
buffer of coal and uranium can hold over the world a good while longer,
after oil and gas have dwindled (by the way, enormous amounts of thorium in
the crust of the earth await us for fission as well, so does uranium in the
sea water, not to speak of shale and oil sands).

But due to the greenhouse debate (which I personally don't expect to be a
temporary hobby) coal is under pressure and it remains to be seen whether
uranium will again become popular enough for macro expansion. Both fuels
might have a tough time just to maintain their relative proportion in the
energy mix, unless, perhaps, it gets real cold in winter and the public
perception changes from luxury to survival...?

So, theoretically speaking, I agree with you that fossil fuels will never
run out completely, there always will be some left. But at the same time,
practically speaking, I do believe that a good residual amount will be left
in place, being too extraordinary expensive to exploit, both in money and
energy.

So, at some point in time and at certain competing price levels, alternate
energy sources will kick in.
Fossil gradually getting more expensive, renewable gradually cheaper (by
mass production etc, look at solar) and somewhere the twain shall meet....
looks logical to me.

Therefore, as in my other mailing, I propose to concentrate on break-even
NET price levels for certain technologies, more than on debating local
political subsidizing and precise timing of fossil depletion (the last two
items everybody can easily figure into his own local equation).
Those NET price levels (i.e. stripped from externalities) might offer a good
basis for comparative rating and supra-regional discussion on this List.

You write:
>PS: Have you read the Club of Rome stuff from the early '70's, to see how
far wrong they went with their predictions?

Yes, I read and followed it at the time, including the computer modeling and
arithmetic.
Their basic idea, of course, is still valid: that resources ARE limited,
that re-use IS to be promoted and that the earth has a FINAL capacity as a
garbage dump.
"Limits to Growth", remember?
Their computer model has to be valued for what it was: a model with
assumptions.
But so is every model, right up till today.
What they did was instilling the idea that the earth is limited, both in
extraction and absorption, including a final (limited) amount of clean air
and water.
And right they were.
Personally, I appreciate them for the insight offered and starting the
discussion at the time. And will not hold them to the exact numerical
results. Those were -as I recall- rather linear projections of usage and
double digit economic expansion, which in the western world fortunately
leveled off somewhat over time. Fortunately, I say, since otherwise, Venice
might have been already completely submerged by now........(just joking) and
we in deeper......today. 

Kevin, by the way, with regard to another message of yours, did you ask Red
Adair about his views on the "ease of handling of petroleum fuels"?

best,
Andries
 



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