Re: Electrifying Times

[Chris Maresca <ckm@crust.net>]

This is a great post, my hat's of to you.  I wish more people would list
and take this to heart.

Thanks.

Chris.

On Sun, 30 Sep 2001, Lee A. Hart wrote:

> I've met Bruce Meland, and he is indeed a wonderful person. He is
> steadfast, hard-working, intelligent, and well-read. However, what he
> reads is a bit different than what you might find in the popular press.
> 
> Someone once said, "Be careful what you read, because once you get it
> into your head, it is damned difficult to get it out." Given bad facts,
> even the brightest individual will come to bad conclusions.
> 
> Critical thinking is vital. Fiction is easier to write than fact, and it
> sells better. *Most* of what you read and hear is likely to be fiction.
> It is essential to maintain a healthy skepticism, and treat *everything*
> as unproven until gets past your BS filter.
> 
> In Carl Sagen's excellent book "The Demon-Haunted World -- Science as a
> Candle in the Dark" he gives some excellent rules for critical thinking.
> Given the recent events, it is worthwhile for all of us to keep them in
> mind. Here is his "BS (Baloney Sandwich :-) detection kit":
> 
> 1. There must be *independent* confirmation of facts.
>    The same "fact" repeated by 10 different sources doesn't count.
> 
> 2. Encourage substantive debate, by knowledgeable proponents of all
>    points of view. That means listening to *both* sides of the argument.
> 
> 3. Arguments from authority carry little weight. It's not true because
>    "X" says so. You want to hear from experts, not authorities.
> 
> 4. Spin more than one hypotheses. List *all* the possibilities, and
>    then try to prove each one false. The hypothesis that survives is
>    more likely to be right than your first guess.
> 
> 5. Don't form an opinion before you have the facts. Those that do tend
>    to exaggerate facts that support their opinion, and ignore facts that
>    contradict it.
> 
> 6. Quantify. Numbers are more precise than words. Many arguments
>    disappear once the protagonists figure out that "17" is being
>    called "many" by one side, and "few" by the other.
> 
> 7. Faulty logic: There aren't just two possibilities; there are MANY.
>    If there's a chain of arguments, every link in the chain has to work.
> 
> 8. Occam's Razor: When faced with two hypotheses that explain things
>    equally well, the simpler one is more likely to be true.
> 
> 9. Always ask whether the hypothesis can be falsified. Is it untestable,
>    and impossible to confirm? Then it is little more than an interesting
>    idea; not something you can base action upon.
> 
> He also gives some common errors to beware of.
> 
> 1. Argument ad hominem (Latin for "to the man."); attacking the argurer
>    and not the argument.
> 
>    "The Reverend Dr. Smith is a known biblical fundamentalist, so her
>    objections to evolution need not be taken seriously."
> 
> 2. Argument from authority, not expertise:
> 
>    "President Richard Nixon should be re-elected because he has a secret
>    plan to end the war."
> 
> 3. Argument from adverse consequenses: We must do this because the
>    only alternative is worse.
> 
>    "God must exist, because if he didn't, society would be even more
>    lawless and dangerous than it is."
> 
> 4. Arguments from ignorance:
> 
>    "There is no compelling evidence that UFOs are not visiting the
>    Earth; therefore they must exist."
> 
> 5. Arguments based on special pleadings to the divine or unknowable:
> 
>    "How could God permit such cruelty? Because God moves in mysterious
>    Ways."
> 
> 6. Begging the question; i.e. assuming the answer without evidence:
>  
>    "The stock market fell today due to profit-taking by investors."
> 
> 7. Counting the hits and ignoring the misses:
> 
>    "Our war on drugs is working because we have put thousands in jail."
> 
> 8. Lying with statistics:
> 
>    "Half of all arabs are of below-average intelligence."
> 
> 9. Inconsistency:
> 
>    "It is prudent to plan for the worst threat our opponents can offer."
>    "There is no point in spending money on environmental dangers because
>    the threat has not been proven."
> 
> 10. non sequitor (Latin for "it doesn't follow):
> 
>    "Our nation will prevail because God is on our side."
> 
> 11. post hoc, ergo propter hoc (Latin for "it happened first, therefore
>     it was the cause")
> 
>    "We never would have had nuclear weapons if women hadn't gotten the
>    right to vote."
> 
> 12. The fallacy of the excluded middle (allowing only the extremes,
>     with no compromises):
> 
>    "America -- love it or leave it"
>    "You're either with us, or against us." 
> 
> 13. Short-term vs. long-term: Really a variation of the excluded middle
>     but so common that it needs special attention:
> 
>    "We don't have money to fight poverty; it's urgently needed to
>    fight crime on the streets."
> 
> 14. The slippery slope, also related to the excluded middle:
> 
>    "If we let them win in Viet Nam, they'll take over the world."
> 
> 15. Mixing up correlation and causation:
> 
>    "Studies show that more college graduates are homosexual than
>    those with less education; therefore college makes people gay."
> 
> 16. The straw man: Caricaturing your enemy as stupid or subhuman to
>     make him easier to attack:
> 
>    (endless examples of this one in the news lately)
> 
> 17. Half-truths: Telling lies by selective use of the facts.
> 
>    "I saw him yelling at the woman. She ran away. He chased her down,
>    still yelling, and tore off her clothes. Then he threw her on the
>    ground, and got on top of her and rolled her around." A detail was
>    omitted; her clothes were on fire.
> 
> 18. Weasel words:
> 
>    "Police action. Armed incursion. Pacification. Safeguarding American
>    interests. Freedom fighters. Collateral damage."
> 
> Sorry if this got a bit off-topic, but I think is is important. We need
> to pay more attention to people who show us HOW to think than to those
> that tell us WHAT to think.
> -- 
> Lee A. Hart                Ring the bells that still can ring
> 814 8th Ave. N.            Forget your perfect offering
> Sartell, MN 56377 USA      There is a crack in everything
> leeahart_at_earthlink.net  That's how the light gets in - Leonard Cohen
> 

--
chris maresca
      internet systems architect -- www.chrismaresca.com

"Every day you may make progress. Every step may be fruitful. Yet there will stretch
out before you an ever-lengthening, ever-ascending path. You know you will never get
to the end of the journey. But this, so far from discouraging, only adds to the joy
and glory of the climb."                          [Sir Winston Chruchill, 1874-1965]