RE: GAS-L: Yes -- more Global Warming news

[Weststeijn A <A.Weststeijn@epz.nl>]

Be it 1, 2 or 3 feet of sea level rise in the next century, it will have
grave impact on those low-lying coastal plains where a substantial portion
of the world population lives. Also, there will be a shift between fertile
vs desert lands, impacting many more.
Helping to slow down this process doesn't look such a bad idea to me. And
visa versa: not helping to slow it down -since a single vulcano eruption
might undo all human endeavours in this area etc- looks like taking a big
gamble.
Slowing down the process admittedly takes money. I.e. requires choices in
society.
This is one side of the picture.

The other side of the picture is that fossil fuels will run out. Whether it
may be a few years earlier or later, and even taking intensified exploration
in difficult spots into account, they are limited. The transition to more
use of renewables (sunlight/wind/waves/biomass/geothermal) is the only large
scale effort towards an alternate global energy supply system I am aware
off, next to nuclear fission and fusion (provided the last one will work).


The timeframes for CO2 mitigation and for getting an alternate energy system
up and going co-incide. That's important.
The principle difference between introducing renewables and nuclear
fission/fusion world wide, is that renewables can be introduced as a widely
distributed energy resource at multiple levels of technology (for different
regions at different stages), while nuclear fission/fusion certainly can
not. That's an important aspect of renewable energy systems: their
adaptibility to local needs.  

Every substantial technological development so far has taken 30-50 years to
reach maturity. And maturity is needed to have renewables take on the major
world wide role required to compensate for declining fossil fuels.

Hence, the work done on renewables (and especially on biomass conversion as
subject of this List) is required anyway, regardless of the precise impact
of CO2 on the atmosphere. And no doubt the development support and stimulus
for large scale introduction of renewables are going to fluctuate with the
urgency as conceived by society (through political decision making).


Nowadays steps are taken to build up that renewables industry. And the
people associated with this industry (like many on this List) can make sure
that the right steps are taken. Those steps are important as the building
blocks for future large scale application and will not be in vain. The rate
of development, however, remains largely outside the reallm of technology
and business. That remains in the political arena, where it will have to
compete with totally different interests. 

I conclude that the stimulus for energy conversion from biomass will not be
limited to hotly debated IPCC numbers on global warming alone, but will come
from (equally hotly?) debated numbers on fossil fuel supply as well. And
that the direction of renewables development will hardly depend on the level
of the numbers presented. However, the speed of development will depend very
heavily on the numbers presented.    


Andries Weststeijn   




> ----------
> Van: 	Eric Bruce Johnston[SMTP:ericbj@club-internet.fr]
> Antwoord naar: 	gasification@crest.org
> Verzonden: 	woensdag 24 januari 2001 3:08
> Aan: 	gasification@crest.org
> Onderwerp: 	Re: GAS-L: Yes -- more Global Warming news
> 
> Nobody knows what is happening at present (conflicting reports and
> interpretation of statistics) so no one can possibly know what is going to
> happen when things get even more out of hand.  No computer model can
> possibly take into account all the infinite number of variables in a
> living organism as complex as the earth. 
> 
> Twenty or so years ago, looking from a hilltop on a clear, dry day in
> summer, the distant view sometimes stood out so sharply you felt you could
> reach out and touch it.  Nowadays, even on the clearest days, the view is
> veiled with a blue-grey haze.  And is it my imagination that the colour of
> the sky has shifted from blue to blue-grey ? 
> 
> Owing to the possible consequences of our actions for the survival of the
> ecosystem on which we and other species depend,  we should assume a worst
> case hypothesis. 
> 
> Man in the western world lives in a cocoon and refuses to recognize the
> potential grimness of his predicament.  If he would face up to things he
> might be able to do something about it, assuming we have not already
> reached the point-of-no-return.  As it is, it may be that our so-called
> civilisation -  in addition to reducing the majority of people in the
> "third world" from a relative poverty, where they did not have much and
> did not need much, to an absolute poverty where they are deprived even of
> the ability to fend for themselves - may be responsible for many deaths
> from droughts, flooding and other causes. 
> 
> Let me recount a little story.  In '68 when I was colonial administrative
> officer on Umboi, an island between New Guinea and New Britain, I was
> patrolling down the eastern side of the island.  A village I slept in was
> infested with rats - completely overrun by them.  I suggested to the
> villagers they get some cats.  They told me they used to have them.  But a
> malaria-control team had visited and had sprayed every nook and cranny of
> their huts with D.D.T.  This killed all manner of bugs, which fell to the
> ground through the split black-palm floors (the houses are built on
> stilts).  The chickens ate the bugs.  Result : no chickens.  The cats ate
> the chickens.  Result : no cats.  And then ... well, you guessed it.  I
> had just received my first lesson in ecology. 
> 
> Graeme A. Bentink a écrit: 
> 
> 	Wouldn't common sense suggest that increased CO2 emissions are an
> unlikely 
> 	major cause of global warming. I remember tests done in climate
> controlled 
> 	greenhouses where the CO2 was set at artificially high levels. What 
> 	happened? - the plants growth rate rose to the challenge and brought
> the 
> 	levels into order. I believe that there is little value in the
> results of 
> 	various testing done on "ancient" air deposits for the purpose of 
> 	determining past atmospheric conditions such as relative elemental 
> 	composition. I would be interested to know how methane outputs have
> changed 
> 	since methane has a much greater effect/mole than CO2 from what I
> have read. 
> 
> 	Anyway, these mostly my thoughts only, so many will disagree and
> some may 
> 	agree. 
> 
> 	Best regards, Graeme 
> 
> 	> 
> 	> "new evidence shows more clearly than ever that rising
> temperatures are the 
> 	> fault of 
> 	> industrial pollution" 
> 	> 
> 	> Global warming is a very touchy subject on this mail list. Being
> that the 
> 	> "intelligentsia" here are just about unanimous in believing CO2
> emissions 
> 	> can have nothing to do with it. 
> 	> 
> 	> Historically though -- every time the intelligentsia agree with
> fervor that 
> 	> "it can't happen here" -- rest assured it will! 
> 	> 
> 	> I still say we should have kept a more open mind on this subject
> -- and 
> 	> certainly we should have "convinced" the US to slow down
> emissions. Just in 
> 	> case CO2 is a triggering agent for the end of life as we know it. 
> 	> 
> 	> As it stands -- if the intelligentsia are wrong -- there will
> probably be 
> 	> no one left to comment on that fact. so of course -- they are in a
> win/win 
> 	> situation with that proclamation! Can't immagine life on earth
> being 
> 	> "normal" after a 10 deg increase in global temperatures. Move over
> Mad Max 
> 	> -- here we all come! 
> 	> 
> 	> Peter in Belize (Looking for my place in the Maya mountains here
> to survive 
> 	> and witness this coming event.) 
> 	> 
> 	> *** UN report warns of global warming 
> 	> 
> 	> SHANGHAI, China (AP) - Global temperatures could rise by as much
> as 
> 	> 10 degrees over the next century, triggering droughts, floods and 
> 	> other disasters from shifts in weather patterns, a U.N. report
> said 
> 	> Monday. The projected rise in average worldwide temperatures is 
> 	> sharply higher than the 2-5 degrees previously thought, said
> Robert 
> 	> T. Watson, chairman of the U.N.-affiliated Intergovernmental Panel
> 
> 	> on Climate Change, which organized the meeting in Shanghai. The
> U.N. 
> 	> report, by scientists from 99 countries, said new evidence shows 
> 	> more clearly than ever that rising temperatures are the fault of 
> 	> industrial pollution, not changes in the sun or from other natural
> 
> 	> causes. Yet, few countries are meeting commitments to cut
> emissions 
> 	> of greenhouse gases, scientists said. "Only a few countries such
> as 
> 	> Britain and Germany are on track to meet their targets," said 
> 	> Watson, an American who is chief science adviser to the World
> Bank. 
> 	> "The United States is way off meeting its targets." The report is 
> 	> intended to add urgency to world climate negotiations that ended
> in 
> 	> November when countries couldn't agree on how to reduce greenhouse
> 
> 	> gases under a commitment by industrialized countries in 1997. 
> 	> 
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