[GBlist] Re:[GBlist] hydrogen/energy policy-Off Topic

[FUnger@aol.com]

Steve and Bill,

You guys are right that the administrations new fuel cell policy is not a 
panacea in itself.

Steve points out that there is a tradeoff in policies related to autos. 
Frankly the technologies that the old policies were promoting seem in many 
cases pretty well proven. I see no reason for the feds to continue major 
subsidy for research on technology that Honda and Toyota already have on the 
market. Check out the Prius or the Insight.  With tougher mileage standards, 
numerous fuel efficient technologies that the auto manufacturers already have 
developed can make dramatic differences in our oil consumption and pollution 
emissions. These technologies need Congress's will power more than our tax 
dollars to become near term market place realities.

The best way to increase gas mileage efficiency isn't long term federally 
sponsored research, but rather significant short term increases in the CAFE 
standards for auto mileage. It seems that by the time the existing 
Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles research pans out much of it 
will be obsolete and all the major manufacturers will have fuel cell 
technology in place. While I am generally not a huge fan of government 
mandates, this is an area, like building codes, that by simply setting a 
somewhat more sensible standard, the entire picture can be dramatically 
improved pretty quickly. The real failure of policy here is that the CAFE 
mileage standards haven't been increased in fifteen years. This is not a new 
problem with the current administration but a very well entrenched problem in 
Congress.

Bill points out the obvious concern, that depending on the source of the 
hydrogen, fuel cells can be a less than ideal solution. No argument from this 
quarter, except to point out that even using gasoline and onboard fuel 
reformers, fuel cell cars will create far less pollution. 

The real issue is that in order to move from our current reality to creating 
a clean hydrogen fuel infrastructure we have to begin the transition. It 
won't be either instantaneous or perfect. The new policy appears to be a good 
start. Later effort may help encourage renewably fueled hydrolysis as the 
clean source of hydrogen. Several studies suggest that offshore wind 
generation and other renewable technologies may evolve to become the most 
cost effective source of hydrogen production. In any case we still have to 
develop and build out hydrogen transportation, distribution and storage 
technologies and infrastructure.

Check out the long term energy supply analysis from Shell Oil: Energy Needs, 
Choices and Possibilities, Scenarios to 2050. (Sorry, one of the other 
stalwarts here will have to provide a web address.) The exciting thing in 
that report is that by projecting what they believe are the two extremes of 
potentially realistic scenarios for energy policy from major governments, in 
any reasonably likely scenario, renewables make up a very significant portion 
of the primary energy resources used (greater than coal oil and nuclear) and 
hydrogen plays a primary role in the fuel system. This isn't crack pot 
wishful thinking. This is the basis for planning for one of the worlds 
largest energy companies.

All the major auto companies are projecting fuel cell vehicles in production 
by 2008 with some claiming they'll make it by the 2004 model year. So even 
the long term stuff is moving somewhat quicker in the market place than in 
the policy arena. What we will need real development effort in is creating a 
fuel infrastructure that can transition away from gasoline toward hydrogen. 
That is what the Freedom CAR initiative appears to be about. 

For anyone that cares about this stuff, I'd suggest writing your Congress 
people supporting both the Freedom CAR initiative to move us to the next 
generation of autos along with immediate enactment of tougher auto CAFE auto 
mileage standards to deal with the near term reality. 

Fred.

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