[GBlist] Can all oil be used up?

["Mark R. Johnson" <mrj53@mindspring.com>]

On Mon, 28 Jan 2002, Corwyn wrote:
>
> > Perhaps someone can explain to me how a finite resource can be
> > infinitely used up.  I am only a math person so I have trouble with it.

It would not be infinitely used up, but rather asymptotically. As the
"low hanging fruit" becomes consumed, the price will naturally rise to
reflect the scarcity. Then normal human behavior would be to increase
our reliance on alternatives, but at no point would there *not* be oil
available for a price. That's what I mean by not running out.

In all probability we will see oil itself rise in price in the next
couple decades, as new sources are considerably more expensive to
produce than older sources. We should also think about the fact that
natural gas is already increasing market share, and will become more
relevant as an energy source as time goes by. This fuel is a lot less
polluting than alternatives like coal, wood, or oil. We could take some
comfort in the fact that moving from oil to natural gas is part of a
"de-carbonizing" process -- of which the theoretical ideal is burning
pure hydrogen. It's not the revolutionary step but the evolutionary one.

We don't need to get ulcers about "running out" of things like oil, we
don't really own that problem IMO. The problem has a natural logical
solution that will be naturally, organically implemented over time
without any conscious action from us. Does that sound like corporate
spin? I think it has a lot more to do with sound science, engineering
and economics.

Best wishes -- Mark Johnson

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