Re: [GBlist] Can all oil be used up?

[FUnger@aol.com]

I have to support Mark's perspective 100% on this. 

The Chairman of Ford Motor company claims he plans to personally preside over 
the demise of the gasoline engine at Ford. 

The Saudi Oil Minister (whose name is slipping me right now) reminded us that 
"The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones" and has pushed his 
nation to use their current oil revenues to diversify their economy for a 
rapidly approaching time that oil is simly surpassed by better technology 
like renewably produced hydrogen.

In the Shell Oil company planning study, "Energy Needs Choices and 
Possibilities, Scenarios for 2050", the company predicts that no matter what 
realistically potential regulatory approach major governments adopt toward 
energy and environmental issues over the nexct half century, renewables will 
have a larger share of the primary energy market than oil by 2050. They 
predict hydrogen and natural gas will be the primary transportable fuels. 
They are basing their future on that plan.

Mark is right. Good changes are coming about through natural economic forces. 
The world doesn't have to be facing major calamities to improve. This stuff 
is happening because better, cleaner technology is dropping in price and 
becoming economically competetive. As wind, solar and hydrogen technologies 
drop in price and especially if oil prices rise, there will be a natural 
shift to the better technologies. Technological improvement and changes in 
relative pricing are the primary factors leading to most technological 
change. 


Fred


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