RE: [GBlist] Can all oil be used up?

["Ralph Bicknese" <ralph.bicknese@christnerinc.com>]

Mark:


Mark Johnson noted:

<We don't need to get ulcers about "running out" of things like oil, we
don't really own that problem IMO. The problem has a natural logical
solution that will be naturally, organically implemented over time without
any conscious action from us.>

I agree that market forces will and ARE dictating a change from massive
reliance on oil to other alternatives.  But, it seems the problem owns us
rather than us owning it.  And the grip it has on us is dictating what
people do.  Without positive conscious action we will be subject to the
whims of the proverbial winds of change wherever they may or may not take
us.  I do not like to be dictated to and I do not like to be bombed or
otherwise held ransom. I prefer to have a choice and I will do what I can to
direct my choices rather than be directed to.  I do not like the massive
environmental destruction and social degradation that has occurred as a
result of inappropriately directed conscious decisions.  I also do not like
the environmental problems caused by the extraction, distribution,
refinement, and burning of oil.  Nor am I particularly keen about similar
problems with natural gas.  So, I choose to speak out, practice
alternatives, and search for more and better alternatives to avoid being
boxed into a corner that cannot be easily gotten out of in a hurry. At the
moment we are still boxed in and the tensions and results caused are not at
all attractive.

Unfortunately history has shown us that when a people runs low on a resource
and another party(s) is (are) not willing to share it at fair value either
new ways are developed or they fight over it.  There are all sorts of
complicated "reasons" for this but it is happening throughout the world now.
As resources become scarcer and scarcer, the tensions between people unable
to find other ways become greater,  the battles begin.  Many have suggested
the people of the third world constitutes a great likelihood of being those
who are unable to find other ways and they may be the biggest group who will
be at the throats of those most able (but so far relatively unwilling) to
find appropriate ways to deal with resource scarcity.  Right now there are a
lot more have-nots than haves.  I do not like those odds either from a
numbers standpoint or a humane one.

Mark noted:

<It seems to me that significant change in for example energy consumption,
can only be obtained by working for incremental improvements with a wide
number of consumers.>

We share some common ground on this point.  Incremental change is a good
thing and perhaps the surest way of achieving lasting change.  Incremental
change usually allows change to happen through consensus and that is
positive and usually long lasting.  But I am rather sure though that it NOT
is the "only" way.  Rather I think a number of rapid changes taking place
concurrently with incremental changes is a better and more likely way things
happen.  Incremental change was a good thing for instance in the development
and durability of many medieval European cities that prosper and remain
charming today. But that is no guarantee of durability, for as many as have
prospered, many more have withered.  Today the rate of change has
accelerated dramatically as has the need for rapid change.  Technology has
enabled people to do much more with much less effort so things like forest
depletion and species extinction happen very quickly when compared with 200
or even 100 years ago.  So, by necessity our responses to these problems
must occur much faster than in the past.

Cheers,
Ralph Bicknese


Cheers,
Ralph Bicknese

-----Original Message-----
From: Mark R. Johnson [mailto:mrj53@mindspring.com]
Sent: Tuesday, January 29, 2002 12:29 AM
To: greenbuilding@crest.org
Subject: [GBlist] Can all oil be used up?

On Mon, 28 Jan 2002, Corwyn wrote:
>
> > Perhaps someone can explain to me how a finite resource can be
> > infinitely used up.  I am only a math person so I have trouble with it.

It would not be infinitely used up, but rather asymptotically. As the
"low hanging fruit" becomes consumed, the price will naturally rise to
reflect the scarcity. Then normal human behavior would be to increase
our reliance on alternatives, but at no point would there *not* be oil
available for a price. That's what I mean by not running out.

In all probability we will see oil itself rise in price in the next
couple decades, as new sources are considerably more expensive to
produce than older sources. We should also think about the fact that
natural gas is already increasing market share, and will become more
relevant as an energy source as time goes by. This fuel is a lot less
polluting than alternatives like coal, wood, or oil. We could take some
comfort in the fact that moving from oil to natural gas is part of a
"de-carbonizing" process -- of which the theoretical ideal is burning
pure hydrogen. It's not the revolutionary step but the evolutionary one.

We don't need to get ulcers about "running out" of things like oil, we
don't really own that problem IMO. The problem has a natural logical
solution that will be naturally, organically implemented over time
without any conscious action from us. Does that sound like corporate
spin? I think it has a lot more to do with sound science, engineering
and economics.

Best wishes -- Mark Johnson

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This greenbuilding dialogue is sponsored by REPP/CREST, creator of
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______________________________________________________________________


______________________________________________________________________
This greenbuilding dialogue is sponsored by REPP/CREST, creator of
Solstice http://www.crest.org, and BuildingGreen, Inc., publisher of
Environmental Building News and GreenSpec http://www.BuildingGreen.com
______________________________________________________________________