http://www.nytimes.com/2001/06/04/opinion/04NERI.html
June 4, 2001, NYTimes
The Mirage of a Growing Fuel Supply
..."Calculations also show that if consumption of an energy
resource is allowed to grow at a steady 5 percent annual rate, a full doubling
of the available supply will not be as effective as reducing that growth rate
by half — to 2.5 percent. Doubling the size of the oil reserve will add at
most 14 years to the life expectancy of the resource if we continue to use it
at the currently increasing rate, no matter how large it is currently. On the
other hand, halving the growth of consumption will almost double the life
expectancy of the supply, no matter what it is.
This mathematical reality seems to have escaped the politicians pushing to
solve our energy problem by simply increasing supply. Building more power
plants and drilling for more oil is exactly the wrong thing to do, because it
will encourage more use. If we want to avoid dire consequences, we need to
find the political will to reduce the growth in energy consumption to zero —
or even begin to consume less."
..."Reducing the growth of consumption means living closer to where we work
or play. It means telecommuting. It means controlling population growth. It
means shifting to renewable energy
sources."
