RE: Solar Ideas - long but hopefully informative

[Andreas Georgiades <AGeorgiades@Gain.com>]

Dear Leonard, thank you for your reply, I appreciate your thoughts.
The 'start small' idea and build it up as you go (as "good deals" come
along)
is definitely the way to go, in the same sense as build a small house and
add on as needs and family size arise.

As for the fuel costs in the near future are concerned, I'm afraid with 
the current new president and vice president we have (a very diverse ticket,
they come from 2 different oil companies),
oil wellls will be dug with great frequency and intensity (the back yard of
the White House included!) with no regard for the environment 
or the future... I don't foresee the fuel costs in 1-2 years will be
significantly higher than they are now.

Either way, I'm doing it. It might just take a while...


Thanks again,
Andreas

On Thursday, January 25, 2001 2:43 PM, Leonard Jones
[SMTP:ldjones@innotech.cnchost.com] wrote:
> What you have said here is true - on the face of it..... 
> 
> But you need to consider a few other things... 
> 
> Andreas Georgiades wrote: 
> 
> I've been considering buying a PV (photovoltaic) solar panel system but I 
> was pretty shocked at how significant the initial cost would be... 
> I thought, oh well, once you buy it should pretty much pay for itself  in
a 
> few years assuming it's virtually 
> maintenance free. 
> So, I visited the Tucson Electric Power website to get a rough estimate
for 
> rates. The rates are frozen till 2008 after 3 consecutive 
> decreases in the past 2 years. 
> Roughly the rates for a home are about 10cents/kWh (more in the summer,
less 
> in the winter)
> 
> Retty reasonable - but you need to do a little more research.... 
> 
> Where are they getting this power?? 
> 
> If they don't own the source, who does?? 
> 
> How likely is it, really, that they can hold the line on costs and rates
for 8 years?? 
> 
> Where will they be getting the power to take care of growth?  If this cost
is more than the going rate, how will it be absorbed into the going rate?? 
> 
> Will your utility implement time-of-day rates, charging a premium for your
use during peak periods??  (Depending on your outlook and your willingness
to be creative, this can be a plus instead of a minus!) 
> 
> Remember - as power supplies become scarce, reliability goes down the
tubes, too....! 
> 
> Etc., etc., etc.
> 
>  
> 
> Much stuff deleted..... 
> 
>   
> 
> After all these calculations, does a solar panel system even make sense 
> unless its initial cost 
> is dramatically reduced or grid-power rates are dramatically increased? 
> (hello California!)
> 
> The current trend is for PV costs to continue down and for grid power
costs to continue to escalate...  CA rates are already high - when they jump
up further to get the utilities out of the financial hole they're in, PV
will definitely be economical.  As far as the rest of us are concerned, -
we'll get there by and by.  Don't hold your breath, but after a few more
years, PV will be economical in many locations... 
> 
> It is very close now to being competitive with the cost of NEW power
plants - which will have to be built soon lest the whole country end up like
CA - or else massive conservation efforts will have to be implemented. 
> 
> If you want to do PV, the first step in the design process is to reduce
your electrical use as much as possible.  Turn the switch OFF!  Install
compact flourescent light bulbs and high efficiency appliances.  Replace
your stove and clothes dryer with gas-fired models.  Eliminate phantom
loads.  Etc. Etc. 
> 
> Then size your system based on the reduced use.  A lot of folks are living
in reasonable comfort using significantly less than 24 KWH per day in
off-grid situations.  In your situation, where grid power is available, you
might consider building a grid-connected system with no batteries - using
the utility's distribution system as power storage.  Or maybe only install a
small battery pack - just big enough to carry you through a short to
moderate power outage.  Start small, designing to grow as the sitution
dictates....  (that's what I'm doing! - I add to my system whenever I find a
"deal" on equipment...) 
> 
> Any ideas out there from all you supersmart people from all over the
world? 
>  
> 
> Fundamentally, you have to take the long view to commit to PV - think
about it for a while, then do it... 
>   
> 
>   
> Andreas
> 
> Leonard Jones, PE 
> Littleton, CO 
>   
> 
>   
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