REPP - Issue Brief 11 - Christopher Flavin and Seth Dunn - CLIMATE OF OPPORTUNITY: Renewable Energy After Kyoto

Figure 2: U.S. Carbon Emissions, 1960-97 with Projections to 2010

"Flexibility" mechanisms could mean less renewable energy development

1 - The climbing top curve represents the Department of Energy's projection of U.S. carbon emissions under a "business-as-usual" scenario--that is, without new policies to cut emissions.

2 - The milder but still rising middle two curves describe the range of carbon the U.S. could emit and still meet its Kyoto target--providing that it could exploit "flexibility" mechanisms such as international emissions trading, expansion of carbon sinks, and use of the basket approach to include reductions from all six greenhouse gases.

3 - The severe bottom curve is a straight line between current carbon emissions and a 7 percent cut in emissions in the year 2010--essentially the path the nation would have to follow if it were required to cut carbon emissions domestically without the flexibility mechanisms described above.

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1 -	The climbing top curve represents the Department of Energy's projection of U.S. carbon emissions under a "business-as-usual" scenario--that is, without new policies to cut emissions.
2 -	The milder but still rising middle two curves describe the range of carbon the U.S. could emit and still meet its Kyoto target--providing that it could exploit "flexibility" mechanisms such as international emissions trading, expansion of carbon sinks, and use of the basket approach to include reductions from all six greenhouse gases.
3 -	The severe bottom curve is a straight line between current carbon emissions and a 7 percent cut in emissions in the year 2010--essentially the path the nation would have to follow if it were required to cut carbon emissions domestically without the flexibility mechanisms described above.