1 The authors would like to thank Karl Gawell, Lisa Jacobson, Alan Miller, Karl Rábago, Kevin Rackstraw, Roby Roberts, Adam Serchuk, and Jean Wilson for their helpful comments on an earlier version of this report. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the reviewers or the REPP Board or staff.
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2 Andreas Wagner, Feed-In Tariffs for Renewable Energies in Europe — An Overview (Bonn: European Association for Solar Energy, September 1997).
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3 Andreas Wagner, Bundesverband WindEnergie e.V., Bonn, Germany, letter to author (Flavin), 21 January 1998.
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4 Preben Maegaard, Folkcenter for Renewable Energy, Hurup Thy, Denmark, discussion with Flavin, Tokyo, 3 November 1997.
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5 Worldwatch estimate based on Birger Madsen, BTM Consult, Ringkobing, Denmark, letter to author (Flavin), 10 February 1998.
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6 “Government Boosts Incentives for Solar Power,” COMLINE Daily News Tokyo Financial Wire, 20 November 1997.
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7 Worldwatch estimate based on Paul Maycock, PV News, various issues, and on Madsen, op. cit. note 5. Geothermal estimate based on U.S. DOE, Office of Geothermal Technologies, Strategic Plan for the Geothermal Energy Program, June 1998, Of approximately 8,000 MWe installed worldwide, 2,800 MWe are located in the U.S. Visit http://www.eren.doe.gov/geothermal/ or call 202-586-5340 for more information.
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8 Worldwatch estimate based on Madsen, op. cit. note 5, and on BTM Consult, International Wind Energy Development: World Market Update 1996 (Ringkobing, Denmark: March 1997).
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9 Worldwatch estimate based on Maycock, op. cit. note 7.
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10 Abundant geothermal resources exist along the Pacific Rim and in Eastern Europe, in addition to other regions. While many nations have not developed their capacity, there are notable exceptions, including the El Hoyo-Galan Geothermal Project in Nicaragua. This project is a part of the U.S. Initiative on Joint Implementation and is expected to reduce almost 20 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions in its lifetime. See Table 6.
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11 Ros Davidson and Sara Knight, “American Giant Moves into European Market,” Windpower Monthly, November 1997.
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12 Kent Dahl, “Japanese Firm Makes Solid Commitment,” Windpower Monthly, June 1997.
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13 John Browne, “Creating a Sustainable Company,” presentation to the Andersen Consulting World Forum on Change, 6 June 1997, as posted at http://www.bp.com/, viewed 10 November 1997; “Government Urged to Boost UK Solar Energy Industry,” ENDS Report 274, November 1997.
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14 “Report of the Third Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: 1–11 December 1997,” Earth Negotiations Bulletin, 13 December 1997.
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15 J.T. Houghton et al., eds., Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1996).
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16 Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley, and Malcolm K. Hughes, “Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries,” Nature, 23 April 1998.
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17 Houghton et al., op. cit. note 15.
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18 Worldwatch estimate based on G. Marland et al., Oak Ridge National Laboratory, “Global, Regional, and National CO 2 Emission Estimates from Fossil Fuel Burning, Cement Production, and Gas Flaring: 1975-1995 (revised January 1998),” as viewed at http:// cdiac.esd.ornl.gov 21 January 1998, and British Petroleum (BP), BP Statistical Review of World Energy 1997 (London: Group Media & Publications, 1997).
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19 Worldwatch estimate based on Marland et al., op. cit. note 18 and BP, op. cit. note 18.
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20 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN FCCC), “Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,” FCCC/CP/L.7/Add.1, 10 December 1997.
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21 Ibid.
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22 Ibid.
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23 Worldwatch estimate based on Marland et al., op. cit. note 18 and BP, op. cit. note 18.
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24 UN FCCC, op. cit. note 20.
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25 Robert T. Watson, Marufu C. Zinyowera, and Richard H. Moss, eds., Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1996).
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26 European Commission, “Climate Change —The EU Approach for Kyoto,” Communication from the Commission to the Council, the European Parliament, the Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions (Brussels, 1 October 1997).
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27 “MITI Plans Tightened Outlook For Energy Supply and Demand,” International Environment Reporter, 28 February 1998.
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28 UN FCCC, op. cit. note 20.
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29 Michael Grubb and Christiaan Vrolijk, “The Kyoto Protocol: Specific Commitments and Flexibility Mechanisms,” Climate Change Briefing Paper No. 11, Royal Institute for International Affairs, April 1998.
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30 Joby Warrick, “White House Predicts Low Cost for Pact on Warming,” Washington Post, 4 March 1998.
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31 Raymond J. Kopp and J.W. Anderson, “Estimating the Costs of Kyoto: How Plausible Are the Clinton Administration’s Figures?” RFF Weathervane, 12 March 1998.
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32 Greenpeace International, “The Kyoto Protocol: Key Issues,” Greenpeace Briefing Paper, Third Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, 10 December 1997.
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33 “Planned and Ongoing AIJ Pilot Projects,” Joint Implementation Quarterly, December 1997.
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34 UN FCCC, op. cit. note 20.
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35 Ibid.
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36 Ibid.
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37 “Report,” op. cit. note 14.
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38 “Report of the Meetings of the FCCC Subsidiary Bodies: 2-12 June 1998,” Earth Negotiations Bulletin, 15 June 1998.
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39 UN FCCC, op. cit. note 20.
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40 U.S. share of Annex I emissions is a Worldwatch estimate based on Marland et al., op. cit. note 18, and on BP, op. cit. note 18.
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41 White House, “Climate Change Technology Initiative,” 1999 Briefing Materials, 2 February 1998.
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42 “Senate Version of VA/HUD Spending Bill Cuts Climate Change, Clean Water, CERCLA,” Bureau of National Affairs, Air Pollu-tion and Climate Change website, as viewed at http://www.bna.com, 10 June 1998.
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43 President’s Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST), Report of the Energy Research and Development Panel, Federal Energy Research and Development for the Challenges of the Twenty-First Century (Washington, DC: November 1997).
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44 “Senate Republicans Call For Kyoto Vote Before Funding Climate Change Programs,” Bureau of National Affairs, Air Pollution and Climate Change website, as viewed at http://www.bna.com, 9 June 1998.
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45 Brenda Biondo, “Pushing Solar Energy Through The Roof,” Solar Industry Journal, Second Quarter 1997.
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46 U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE), Science, Technology and Energy for the Future, FY1999 Congressional Budget Request, Budget Highlights and Performance Plan, Office of the Chief Financial Officer (Washington, DC, February 1998).
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47 White House, “Vice President Gore Announces $2,000 Solar Tax Credit,” Washington, DC, 30 January 1998.
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48 Linda Ladas, “States Respond to the Million Solar Roofs,” Solar Industry Journal, Fourth Quarter 1997.
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49 US DOE, op. cit. note 46.
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50 US DOE, “Administration’s Plan Will Bring Competition to Electricity, Savings to Consumers,” Washington, DC, 25 March 1998.
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51 US DOE, op. cit. note 46; Thomas Starrs, “Summary of State Net Metering Programs,” as viewed http://www.spratley.com/ncp, 6 April 1998; see also Thomas Starrs, Net Metering: New Opportunities for Home Power, REPP Issue Brief No. 2, September 1996.
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52 Scott Young, “State Restructuring Bills Compared,” LEAP Letter, November/December 1998, as viewed at http://www.spratley.com/leap, 30 March 1998; National Consumer Project, “New Massachusetts Law Grows Renewable Energy as Retail Market Opens,” Renewables and Restructuring Update, December 1997, as viewed at http://www/spratley.com/ncp/, 30 March 1998.
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53 US DOE, Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (Washington, DC: December 1997).
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54 US DOE, Comprehensive Electricity Competition Plan (Washington, DC: March 1998).
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55 US DOE, “State Restructuring Policies for Renewables,” as viewed at http://www.eren.doe.gov/greenpower/, 13 April 1998.
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56 Barbara C. Farhar, "Energy and the Environment: The Public View", REPP Issue Brief No. 3, October 1996; US DOE, “Summary of Green Pricing Programs,” as viewed at http://www.eren.doe.gov/greenpower/, 16 March 1998.
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57 US DOE, op. cit. note 55; Ed Holt, “Green Power for Business: Good News from Traverse City,” REPP Research Report, July 1997.
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58 Karl Rábago, Ryan Wiser, and Jan Hamrin, “The Green-e Program: An Opportunity for Customers,” The Electricity Journal, January/February 1998.
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59 Center for Resource Solutions, “Green-e Renewable Electricity Branding Program, Certified Products,” as viewed at http://www.igc.apc.org/crs/green-e/, 3 March 1998; Ryan Wiser, “California Retail Green Power Products,” prepared for Lawrence Berke-ley Laboratory, 27 March 1998.
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60 US DOE, op. cit. note 50; US DOE, op. cit. note 53.
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61 “U.S., Canadian Utilities Make CO 2 Trade, Hope to Stimulate Market, Officials Say,” International Environment Reporter, 18 March 1998.
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62 European Commission, “Energy For The Future: Renewable Sources of Energy,” White Paper for a Community Strategy and Action Plan, January 1998.
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63 Ibid.
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64 “Environment Agency’s Climate Change Bill Indicates Step Back from Kyoto Commitment,” International Environment Reporter, 4 February 1998.
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65 “Japanese, Russian Firms Set Stage For Emission Trading Under Cooperative Pact,” International Environment Reporter, 18 March 1998; “Japan Exploring Greenhouse Gas Trades With Russia to Meet Kyoto Pact Reductions,” International Environment Reporter, 18 February 1998.
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66 White House, op. cit. note 41; U.S. Initiative on Joint Implementation, International Partnerships Report, Vol. 4, No. 1, March 1998; for an assessment of USIJI’s market potential, see International Institute for Energy Conservation, Opportunity Knocks: The Export Market for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Products and Services (Washington, DC: March 1997).
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67 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Activities Implemented Jointly: Second Report to the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Washington, DC: January 1998); “Planned and Ongoing AIJ Pilot Projects,” Joint Implementation Quarterly, April 1998; UN FCCC, “List of AIJ Projects,” as viewed at http://www.unfccc.de/fccc/ccinfo/, 7 April 1998.
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68 UN FCCC, op. cit. note 67.
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69 U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), USAID Climate Action Plan (Washington, DC: October 1997).
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70 US AID, “Technology Cooperation Agreements,” Draft Concept Paper, Washington, DC, 12 January 1998.
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71 H.E. Mr. Ryutaro Hashimoto, Prime Minister of Japan, Opening Statement at the High-Level Segment of the Third Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, 8 December 1997.
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72 “Japan to Begin Solar Energy ODA Program In Small Developing Countries in April,” International Environment Reporter, 18 February 1998.
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73 Christopher Flavin, “Banking Against the Greenhouse,” World Watch, November/December 1997; World Bank, DRAFT: Fuel for Thought: A New Environmental Strategy for the Energy Sector (Washington, DC: World Bank, May 1998).
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74 “Report,” op. cit. note 14; “Countries Pledge $2.75 Billion to Fund Global Environment Facility for 1990–2002,” International Environment Reporter, 1 April 1998.
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75 Global Environment Facility, “Private Sector Information Kiosk,” as viewed at http://www.gefweb.org/PRIVATE/, 2 April 1998.
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76 World Bank, Fuel for Thought: A New Environmental Strategy For The Energy Sector, draft, Washington, DC, 29 May 1998.
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77 World Bank, The Global Carbon Initiative of the World Bank, distributed at Kyoto, Japan, December 1997.
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78 “EU Leaning Toward 50% Trading Cap,” ENDS Daily, 2 April 1998.
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79 Martha M. Hamilton, “Shell Leaves Coalition That Opposes Global Warming Treaty,” Washington Post, 22 April 1998.
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80 Colin Macilwain, “Climate Change Centre Signs Up Big Firms,” Nature, 14 May 1998.
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