² Utility Photovoltaic Group (UPVG), UPVG Phase I Final Report (Washington, D.C., June 1994).
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³ These estimates reflect historical prices for crystalline silicon, the established PV technology. Note also that the relationship describes the price of modules only, not of installed PV systems.
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⁴ Utility Photovoltaic Group.
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⁵ It should be noted that price forecasts based upon the experience curve are very sensitive to price and volume inputs. Also, prices do vary somewhat with volume, and Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) prices under their long-term contract with Energy Photovoltaic (discussed in detail below) are allegedly $2.50/watt for modules and $4.25 for installed systems, and are projected to decline to $2.60/watt under a 5-year, 10-MW contract. It should also be noted, however, that the factory that will supply these modules has not yet been built.
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⁶ G.D. Cody and T. Tiedje, "The Potential for Utility Scale Photovoltaic Technology in the Developed World: 1990-2010," Energy and the Environment, ed. B. Abeles, A. J. Jacobson, and P. Sheng (Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Co., 1992).
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⁷ Utility Photovoltaic Group, PV Vision Newsletter, Washington, D.C., Fall 1998.
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⁸ B.C. Farhar and A.H. Houston, "Willingness to Pay for Electricity from Renewable Energy," National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colo., 1996.
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⁹ Ibid..
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¹⁰ Edward A. Holt, Green Pricing Resource Guide (1997).
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¹¹ Utility Photovoltaic Group (UPVG), UPVG Phase 1 Report (Washington, D.C.: June 1994), p. E-4.
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¹² Robert Hammond and Kent Whitfield, "Worldwide Production and Consumption of Diesel Engines," Solar Industry Journal 9, 1st Quarter, 1998, pp. 24-32.
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¹³ Rockefeller Brothers Fund, Selling Solar: Financing Household Solar Energy in the Developing World,, Pocantico Paper No. 2.
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¹⁴ Jeffrey F. Rayport and John. J. Sviolka, "Exploiting the Virtual Value Chain," Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass., 1995.
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¹⁵ This is the mandate for increasing efficiency at Xerox Corporation.
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¹⁶ One of the things that helped Apple get around this bottleneck in the flow of information was their user groups, which were very helpful for new users in developing proficiency and provided an invaluable customer knowledge gathering and product development/testing environment. The PV industry might be able to develop similar mechanisms.
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¹⁷ William Meyers, The Image Makers (New York: Times Books, 1984), p. 165.
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¹⁸ Clayton M. Christensen, The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1997), p. xv.
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¹⁹ Ibid.
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²⁰ Ibid.
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²¹ Ibid., p. 147.
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²² Solar Industry Journal, 1st Quarter, 1998.
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